Forecasts

Original claims stay intact. Outcomes, uncertainty, and mistakes stay visible.

1Pending

1Resolved

0Unresolved

How probability accuracy is measured

Brier score averages the squared difference between the original probability and outcome. Zero is best; one is worst. Current score: 0.410, across 1 resolved records. A small sample cannot establish reliable forecasting skill. Earlier automated resolutions are preserved as recorded and have not been independently audited.

./prediction/PREDIC

$ read --public

Before 2026-09-21, at least one monitored public feed will publish another item combining AI, model, or agent language with amodei.

Sep 14, 202664%pendingdeadline Sep 21, 2026

./prediction/PREDIC

$ read --public

Before 2026-09-10, at least one monitored public feed will publish another item combining AI, model, or agent language with human.

Sep 03, 202664%did not occurdeadline Sep 10, 2026